Power outage?
by Tom Borowski
As any thought of a wildcard race has been extinguished as the Mets fall to 4 games below .500, I keep watching every day in hopes of seeing something that can make me feel good about the Mets lineup moving forward into next season.
While most of the fans and the media will sweat out the pursuit of bringing back Jose Reyes, I think there is a deeper flaw in the lineup that Sandy Alderson and company will have to work on. Certainly, I am not minimizing the value of Reyes, I just don’t see how bringing him back will fix all problems with the lineup’s lack of production. There is a serious lack of punch in the middle of the Mets lineup, and bringing in the fences isn’t going to solve the problem. The Mets need to add some real power in the heart of the order, and that’s the bottom line. Where to find it, is the question.
Having a healthy David Wright is a good start. Amid little to no fanfare, David Wright quietly broke the Mets record for career total bases during Thursday’s matinee against the Padres. To put that in perspective, Wright is only 28 years old. It appears he is viewed by the organization as a cornerstone of their future, and rightfully so. Despite criticism for various reasons, Wright has established himself as a middle of the order slugger and a perennial all-star, having a minimum of 26 homers and 102 RBI in 5 of his last 6 seasons. In his off year, the Mets treacherous first season at Citifield, he hit .307 while his 10 homers were good for 2nd on the team. When he’s hot, he’s one of the better hitters in the league, but Wright is not capable of carrying a team on his oiwn. With Carlos Beltran out of town, and that production not being adequately replaced, Wright is the only source of power in the current Mets lineup.
I believe that Ike Davis will be a legitimate cleanup hitter, and if he can remain healthy I’m sure the Mets will be banking on that. But in the context of planning for 2012, we must remember that Davis has yet to play a full season in the big leagues, and has just 26 career homeruns. Though we all hope for a breakout season in 2012, it has to be considered where he is at in his career, and how much the team can rely on him- especially coming off a bizarre injury.
Lucas Duda is currently showcasing himself for the rest of 2011 trying to win his place on the team next year. Despite his 4th homer of the season Sunday, he now has just 8 career major league round trippers in a little over 500 plate appearances. Daniel Murphy as well, for instance, is another player we all hope develops a little more power. Murph has a total of just 20 big league bombs in the parts of 3 seasons that he has played. I’m not quite sure how much the fans would be behind him when he’s not hitting .320.
So again, where are we getting middle of the lineup protection in 2012? It’s becoming more and more unlikely that Jason Bay will ever return to his form as a legitimate 30-100 type, and there’s not going to be any substantial power numbers from the shortstop or catcher positions as well. So who is even available?
Internally, there are few options in the high level minor leagues that seemingly could be a factor next season. With a corner outfield position fitting to be the most likely spot for an upgrade, maybe next year is the year that Fernando Martinez can stay healthy and make the team out of spring training. He’s started to develop power in triple-A, which he flashed against the Yankees early this season. Injured injured triple-A center fielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis has also demonstrated good power over the last 2 seasons, but is not viewed as a high rated prospect.
The outfield free agency class won’t be a major source of upgrade, as aside from Beltran, the best remaining talent pool via free agency includes the likes of Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer, Nate McLouth, and I guess you can throw Nick Swisher in there as well.
If you remove Beltran’s 15 homers this season, the Mets would be currently tied for last place in the National League for team homers with San Diego. I may be bending the statistics here a bit, but the point is very relevant. Maybe there’s a creative trade that Team Alderson can come up with, or is the plan to go with the young players we are watching now? Moving Wright in a deal, which by accounts is unlikely, would be a huge mistake by removing the one established dangerous bat in the lineup. Teams that want to win look to keep players like that AND resign their existing players- not liquidate for marginal prospects or lesser players. This is why I believe that unless Reyes gets “Carl Crawford” money from another team, the Mets need Wright, Reyes, a healthy Davis… and some additional help if they are planning on contending next season. You can’t go to war with 3 automatic outs in the lineup every night.
To quote Sandy Alderson from last December in an interview, “Chicks dig the long ball, and so do I.” I’m interested to see where he can find that middle of the order production next season… or are we just bringing the fences in instead?
Who do you want to see the Mets go after in the offseason? Or are you comfortable with letting the youngsters like Duda or Martinez develop? Let us know!
“There is a serious lack of punch in the middle of the Mets lineup, and bringing in the fences isn’t going to solve the problem.”
I hope you are not trying to have it both ways…we need more power here, but leave the fences. There seems to be a faction of fans that clings to some romantic notion that, we are strong, we don’t need to move in any stinking fences…or, pitching and defense are the beauty of the sport, leave the fences…I’ll call these the “Fencers”…Fencers want to leave New Shea as it is. They are entitled to their opinion. I disagree and felt this way the minute I saw how this field plays. I have stated all my reasons ad nauseum…I take some solace that Sandy also feels a more neutral park is best, so maybe it will happen.
Bring me that drink menu again!
ALBERT (The guy who plays first base for the Cards)……Then we would need to move the fences BACK!
Spring training 2012 is exactly 6 months away!
That’s half the equation. Championships are won with pitching and power in the heart of the order. Currently, the Mets don’t have nearly enough of either. How Alderson and Co. wish to address it is their prerogative. It’s going to take a while either way. Ownership wasted at least 2 seasons by not learning from its mistakes and hoping it would get better results from the same actions.
As for the fences, the problem with moving them in is that other team plays on the same field. A smaller park is only an advantage if you can hit the ball farther more often than the other guys. Then you’ll get the homers and they won’t. Make the park smaller, and you’ll just be out-homered by the same ratio in larger numbers if everything else remains the same. What are you going to do, move them in and back out every half-inning? I’ve got no problem with reconfiguring the park because the dimensions are too busy, but it’s no way to address a shortage of power.
Again you are entitled to your opinion…bear with me on this one.
Let’s say you have a budding power hitter in the minors…he is promoted to the Mets…he has a few homers taken away by the park…starts to get in his head (these guys have big egos)…frustration sets in…eventually he adapts by going the opposite way more…becoming a singles hitter…or maybe he never adapts, starts to swing harder and messes up his swing. Albert Pujols comes to town for a series…he is not going to change his swing or get frustrated…so what if he loses a homerun…but when he becomes a free agent, that may stick in his head…see how this is going.