First up, Mike Kerwick in the Record:
Best-case scenario
Johan Santana wins 17 games. Ike Davis hits 35 homers. David Wright bats .300. Bay finds his swing. Lucas Duda emerges as a major power threat. Every regular plays 140-plus games. General manager Sandy Alderson adds payroll before the trade deadline. The team sneaks into the playoffs as a wild card. R.A. Dickey’s book lands on the bestseller list.
Worst-case scenario
Johan Santana gets hurt again. Ike Davis takes a step back. David Wright hops on and off the disabled list. Jason Bay loses his spot in the lineup. Terry Collins blows his top. Sandy Alderson trims more payroll. The team finishes with the worst record in baseball. R.A. Dickey’s book is available in the bargain bin.
Prediction
80-82, fourth in NL East, out of postseason.
Hmmm 80-82 was pretty darn positive for a newspaper. We shall treat Mike with respect.
George Vescey was less optimistic in the Times.
Yes, the Mets are in trouble. With all that cable television money available in the New York area, the legal troubles of the Wilpons have turned the Mets into a small-market disaster. Fans talk of turning the Mets into a municipally owned treasure, like the Green Bay Packers, or finding a new owner-savior, but neither is likely to happen.
Two years ago, I quoted Dante in warning Met fans to expect nothing. (“Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.”) That still works in 2012. But Mets fans need to take stock of the hope and humor that course underground, like a long-forgotten creek under a municipal dump.
The team lost 120 games that first season. Who’s to say it couldn’t happen again?
120 losses. I’ll let your own words hang you and move on.
Let’s see what Joel Sherman thought in the Post.
Even if we give Santana points for being a terrific athlete and savvy competitor, he still is wading into pretty uncharted territory. If you were an oddsmaker in Vegas, what would you make the over/under on number of 2012 starts for Santana? Ten? Fifteen? Eighteen? It certainly wouldn’t be 25-30.
You don’t say.
Tom Verducci was also in the Post.
MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Ruben Tejada had two good months at the plate to conclude last season, but there are still legitimate questions as to whether he can hit enough to be a major leaguer.
Tom also predicts that
WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS IF: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Hanley Ramirez, Reyes, Stephen Strasburg, Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel spend the entire year on the disabled list and Jupiter aligns with Mars, Venus and Neptune.
How about Sports Illustrated?
WINTER GRADE: D+
The ‘D’ is for the Mets’ offseason personnel moves: losing Jose Reyes while adding only centerfielder Andres Torres and relievers Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez and Jon Rauch as the club sheared a record $52 million from its payroll and watched several rivals get stronger.
And that loudmouth Shannon Shark from MetsPolice.com published the below on Opening Day in an article called The 2012 Mets: Why Not?
After all the pessimism, after all the negativity this offseason, I am truly excited for Mets baseball.
Johan Santana is back. Anything the Mets get from him is a bonus, and I will take my chances with Johan on the mound any day. He forever earned my respect when he tried to save the 2008 season by throwing a gem on the second to last day.
Ike Davis is back. You may recall he was off to a great start last year.
David Wright is back.
Daniel Murphy hit .320 last year.
Lucas Duda is a moose and hits bombs. Much of the fanbase took their eyes of the second half last year and didn’t get to appreciate this guy’s potential.
One major player is gone. Nothing can be done there.
Giants fans loved Andres Torres. Jason Bay can’t be useless again, can he? What if the Mets ever got a Jason Bay Season out of Jason Bay?
Dickey eats innings for you. Hopefully Niese matures.
The rest? Wishes and dreams. Isn’t it always? The 1990 Mets took a rotation of Viola, Gooden (imagine mentioning Gooden second?), Cone, Sid and Darling and won “only” 91 games. You’d take that rotation in a heartbeat and expect to win it all.
That’s why they play the season. Let the mainstream media be negative. I’m choosing to enjoy this season. I will be in the stands with my son today, and again on Saturday.
There’s a second wild card this year. Maybe Terry can push all the right buttons and Santana can throw a gem in that play-in game and we can all try our luck from there?
Don’t be negative. Don’t cost yourself a season. Enjoy baseball. See you in a few minutes at Citi Field. Let’s Go Mets!
Wow that last guy thought Jason Bay couldn’t possibly suck again. What an idiot.
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I’m outta here for a week. Enjoy 90’s week and hit up mediagoon ([email protected] or @mediagoon) with anything urgent. Long time readers know the Mets like to make major news when I leave Goon in charge…so watch out for trades and a move to Mercury.
Nice compilation of early year predictions. Interesting to look back and see all the negative forecasts for 2012. There were a lot of question marks regarding the young players, the loss of Reyes, the impending trial, Santana sidelined the previous year, etc. So looking back on the 1st half, there’ s been a lot to be pleased with, but the team has shown inconsistent play as well. I remain cautiously optimistic this season. The 2nd half will not be easy since expectations have now changed. The team has a shot at the wild card if it continues this pace, and this is more than most of us fans would have imagined. All I wanted this year was a competitive ball club and seeing the younger players play and gain experience; to this extent I’ve been pleased.