Posted on by Shannon Shark @metspolice

I’d like the Mets to get to 4 back so I can lie to myself all summer

As you may know, I have a problem with math. My problem is that I do math to see how many wins the Mets need to get to such and such a point, and
I rarely like what I see.

Before the winning streak they needed to play like .590 ball to get to 90 wins (and the Wild Card was 91 wins in 2010). Then they ran off six. But then they dropped three. That’s the problem with the math and the problem with being over a week’s worth of wins away from .500, you can win for a week and still be in a big hole.

I don’t like the last-place/6.5-out combo. I look at it and deep down I already know they won’t make the playoffs. Search your feelings you know it to be true.

I need the Mets to just get closer. Make it halfway plausible. Don’t tell me they need to jump 4 teams to catch the Phillies/Marlins (Marlins?) Don’t quite wild card games back to me when there are TEN teams to jump.

If they get on a tear and narrow it to 4 I can stare at a 4 all summer and lie to myself. 4 will be five some days and some days it will be three. Eventually the math will catch up an time will run out and our 2011 Metsies won’t be able to play .600 ball (or whatever the number is) for three months, but the 4 will give me a summer on the deck listening to Howie with a tinge of hope. Is that too much to ask?

6.5 out on May 3rd. Not good.

8 Replies to “I’d like the Mets to get to 4 back so I can lie to myself all summer”

  2. Here’s your math. 27 games in May. Win 17 of them. That’s .630 or so and less than winning each series. (They’re playing .700 baseball the last 10 days) Couple that with beating the Phillies in their series at the end of May at home. That should be enough to get you 2 games closer, and above .500.

    More math:

    12 games against the Phillies left. Go 7-5. Then all the Mets have to do is play ONE game better than the Phillies a month. doable.

    1. >>12 games against the Phillies left. Go 7-5. Then all the Mets have to do is play ONE game better than the Phillies a month. doable.

      The problem isn’t 6 1/2 back. The problem is last place out of 5 teams. Who are the other teams beating Philadelphia as you’re gaining that one game per month? If it’s any of the 4 currently ahead of the Mets in the standings, you’re still the same number of games behind *them*.

      The Mets are essentially going to have to own every team on the schedule the rest of the way to have any shot at the playoffs, and if they were capable of that, they wouldn’t be in last place to begin with.

      The prospect of .630 ball over the remainder is laughable. That would put this team on a winning pace somewhere between that of the 1988 (.625) and 1986 (.667) teams the rest of the way.

      1. Yeah the whole thing where the other teams play each other and someone has to win is often ignored. I bet if I had a super computer it’s already down to every team playing .500 and the Mets having to play some absurdly high percentage.
        I guess the NL could all lose every inter league game. Go AL!

  3. four baxck of what?…last place! We are already 2 behind the Nats for the basement!

    Are you kidding me?…Thats a good one!

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