On trading Reyes and the business of baseball

Yesterday I asked if re-signing Reyes is good for business…some good comments.

JMP:

There is nothing better for business than putting a winning team on the field. We all remember what was happening in Queens in the mid-1980s, with Shea sold out for every single weekend game, and well sold for all weekday games, while the Mets won the NL East in 1986 and 1988, making serious end-of-year runs in 1985 and 1987.

But do you remember what was happening in the Bronx at that time? The Yankees were also-rans, and George Steinbrenner was threatening to move the team to New Jersey, saying that no one wanted to go to the Bronx to go to a game. The truth was that no one wanted to go to the Bronx to see a losing team, especially when there was a winning team across town.

Let’s take the Yankees example a bit further. Steinbrenner in the 80s was perpetually trading his young prospects for “proven talent.” Eventually, thanks to some blatant misconduct, Steinbrenner was suspended from being involved in baseball operations for 2 years. The Yankees only found consistent success a few years after his suspension. A strong argument could be made that had he not been suspended, Jeter, Posada, Williams, Rivera, and Petite would all have been traded for “proven talent,” and the Yankees would not have had their run of championships. At the same time, it meant acknowledging that fan favorites like Mattingly and Winfield were not going to be part of the next generation of successful Yankee teams.

The Mets are at the point in the cycle at which they need to start developing a young core that can drive the team for a decade to come. There are no sure things, and there will be lots of players who don’t work out, but it will certainly take at least 3 or 4 years to build a sustainable base. Sure, Gee might turn out to be a solid pitcher for years to come, but one pitcher isn’t a core.

So let’s say that we real Mets fans are willing to bite the bullet and support Alderson’s efforts to make some sacrifices in the short term in order to build something more sustainable three or four years down the road. The question of Reyes and Wright then become questions not of their impact on the immediate future, but the long term future. Reyes is going to demand at least 5 or 6 years. If you assume he’s productive for the entire term of the contract (which is very far from a sure thing), that means that he would be around for one to three years of the new core. By that point, he will have lost a step or two. Moreover, if the rest of the team is a solid contender, he could prove to be a liability at a crucial position, rather than an asset, especially if the manager at the time gives in to fan pressure to keep him in the lineup even when he isn’t necessarily the best choice.

Now, if the Mets trade Reyes instead of the scenario I outlined above, they can get one or two good prospects — guys who have potential to be a part of the core that Alderson needs to build, or at least be solid role players alongside the new core. There’s not only serious cash to be saved at a time when the team doesn’t have cash to spare, but trading Reyes now can make the Mets into a better team in 3 or 4 years when they start contending again.

A similar argument could be made for Wright. The only difference is that unlike Reyes, who has trouble handling the media sometimes (thus the not-quite-accurate reputation for being “injury prone”), Wright could literally give lessons on how to handle the NYC media. One of the key mistakes the Mets made in the 1980s is that they never gave their young core the proper tools to deal with the media and their newfound fame. One could reasonably argue that keeping Wright around might help correct that mistake. In that respect, he would be to the Mets what Don Mattingly was to the Yankees — a fan favorite who was a damn good player, but someone who never won a thing with the team.

As a real fan, I want to see the team be as good as possible when the next generation of contenders hits their stride. Trading Reyes (and perhaps Wright) is the best way to accomplish that.

 

 

LI Phil:

i know it’s blasphemy in these parts, but the mets should trade reyes and (maybe not this year) wright, since they will never reached the promised land with either player…this group this year has proved to be more resilient than probably anyone had thought, but lets be honest mets fans, they’re not winning ANYTHING anytime soon…time to cut the cord if we can get some good players in return

that being said, reyes shouldn’t be given away (for next to nothing) nor should he be allowed to walk if he can be signed for non-crawford money; he can be traded down the road

no, the mets are not the pirates or royals (who can make more money by having a lower payroll and still not contending, than by having a higher payroll and not contending) but they will never be the yankees…

and shea is ALREADY empty, i doubt it will get much worse if j-rey isn’t in the lineup next april (or august of 2011)

nay, time to lick the wounds, and get something while his value is as high as it will ever be

plus, you sign reyes for crawford (or close to it) money and watch him get hurt (again), and you’ve now handcuffed yourself for years to come

do i love reyes? absoluetly…but im also a realist…no one on this team (now including ike, who before i didn’t want to move) is untouchable

 

 

Paul Lukas, Supreme Commander of Allied Forces on The War To Ditch The Black

One reason the Royals and Pirates have sucked for so long is that it makes more sense for them, business-wise, to field a losing team than to field a competitive one.

Now, the Mets are not the Pirates or the Royals. They play in a market — and are therefore subject to market forces — that are not akin to Pittsburgh or Kansas City. But their cash-strapped ownership may now be facing financial strictures that make them not unlike the owners of the Pirates and Royals.

Which sucks for all of us, natch. Fire the Wilpons already!

Ceetar:

Trading fan favorites, and this isn’t he Pirates and Royals. He’s in his 9th year as a Met. He’s the longest tenured Met. He’s fun. He’s awesome, is never good business in their prime. He contributes to winning baseball.

Fans will be pissed. Yes, eventually they’ll all come back, but that eventually gets pushed further and further back if he’s not here.

Reyes is a winning baseball player, he’s in his prime. He’s the best at a very scarce position. If the Mets are committed to winning, they will keep him. If the Mets game is to be profitable and hope that they win the lottery (which is what the draft/prospects is) then many people are not going to go out to the games.

I watched the Mets in 2009 the second half. The fans were lethargic, both at the stadium and on the Internet. There was disinterest. they weren’t exciting. Compare that to 2010 and while we were disappointed, we were more interested because Reyes was on the field. Beltran was on the field. Wright was there.

2011 will be an absolute ghost house if they go fire sale. And no amount of free agents sell tickets. The place will be desolate in April and May and into June next year, more so than this year.

You mention Piazza. If the Mets resign Reyes, Piazza, after his induction and All-Star celebration stuff in 2013, becomes second, and perhaps third, fiddle to Reyes (And Wright).

Reyes is worth far more than what he’ll be paid, and the mets will pay him. Sandy Alderson has his eyes open.