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What? It’s only May! How can I make such a bold and rash statement. The Mets obviously don’t believe it, they keep saying it’s still early and thay aren’t panicing yet.
Well wake-up guys, baseball is a game of numbers and the numbers don’t lie. The chances of you making the playoffs at this point are slim.
Since 1996, the first full season under the expanded playoff format, 63 of the 96 playoff teams were already in a playoff position (division leader or wild card) on Memorial Day. Only 34% of teams that made the playoffs in the last 12 years overtook other teams after Memorial Day.
It doesn’t get better. Teams that were able to come back and make the post-season were an average of 4 games back in the Wild Card standings on Memorial Day. As of Monday, the Mets found themselves 5.5 out. Only 10 of the 96 playoff teams were 5.5 or more games out at this time – or 10.4%
What about if we look at just the National League, because we know the leagues are very different. At first it does look a bit better – there has been slightly more more volatility as almost 40% of playoff teams were not in position on Memorial Day, including all 4 last year.
But just like before, if we look deeper at the numbers the story only gets worse for the Mets. The average position for these 19 teams was 3.5 games out of the WC. Furthermore, only 5 NL teams – the 96 Cards (6.5), 03 Marlins (8.5), 05 Astros (10.0), 07 Cubs (6.5), and 07 Rockies (5.5) – overcame deficits equal to or greater than the Mets current position.
It’s not just about how many games behind you are though, but also how many teams are in front of you. The 19 NL teams that came back after Memorial Day held an average of 5th place in the WC standings – the Mets are currently in 8th.
What does all this mean? Unless management does something dramatic to turn this team around (such as getting rid of Willie for starters), the last game at Shea Stadium really will be September 29th.
