The Phillies have played 65 games at a clip of .600. If they begin playing .500 ball they will finish with 88 wins.
The Mets have 100 games remaining. If they play 58-42 (.580 ball) they will catch the Phillies.
However the Marlins and Braves and Phillies all play each other, so there are plenty of days where you cannot make up ground, all you can do it potentially lose ground. For example, the Braves play the Phillies 12 more times. One of those teams will win that day…so even if the Mets win that day, they can’t pass anyone. The Phillies play the Marlins 12 more times. The Braves play the Marlins 9 more times. The best the Mets can hope for is that they go 36-0 while all these teams play .500 against each other.
It gets late early, and it’s late.