Was it over when the Mets opened up the season 5-13?
Was it over when Ike Davis went on the DL?
Was it over when David Wright went on the DL?
Was it over when Fred took shots at the stars of the team?
Was it over when RA Dickey fell over?
Was it over when the Phillies came to Citi Field and took the first two games?
Was it over when Sandy traded Reyes to San Francisco?
The Mets find themselves 9.5 games back today.
Remember when I told you at 5-13 that the season was over. It was.
It’s too hard to play .590+ ball for a season, especially when you don’t have a .590 team. Not to mention your future face of the franchise is out, and the not-superstar is out, and the 5th starter might be me, and the #2 starter is somehow Jon Niese.
Anyways…
The Phillies are 33-19. With my magic wand I will make them play .500 ball the rest of the way. That’s 88 wins. Seems manageable.
To tie at 88, the Mets can just go 65-46 the rest of the way which is .585 ball.
Oh but there’s those pesky Marlins and Braves in there. The Phillies play the Marlins or Braves 18 more times. That means the Mets need to go 18-0 on those days to keep ground. And the Mets would need to go 10-0 in the remaining games against the Phillies.
Any time you lose on those 28 days you make the road to the playoffs even harder.
And if the THIRD place Braves keep playing their current .547 ball they will wind up with 88 wins.
Many of you like to point out the Wild Card. The Mets are “only” 7.5 back. In 8th. Behind the Pirates.
The Marlins lead the Wild Card this morning…let’s take a look at their schedule vs. the teams in front of the Mets.
The Marlins play teams in front of the Mets 37 times. That means there are 37 days where the mets can’t make up ground on the entire pack. (And someone with a super-computer can crunch the numbers and permutations of every other team playing every other team).
The Mets do play the Marlins 13 times, so that gives them an opportunity head to head.
The season is over. It has been over. It will continue to be over. I hope statistical probablity chooses to mock me and the Mets go on some 45-5 tear and win the World Series. Nothing would make me happier.
But today there are 9.5 back. It’s not just the games, it’s the teams you have to pass. They play each other and someone wins those games.
I suggest you take my approach and enjoy each individual game. Each individual performance. Go to the park and soak in some sunshine. Enjoy Howie and GKR. Treat yourself to some baseball. Just don’t be delusional, especially if you work in the front office.
It’s over.
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* I’m no math major, I may have missed a game or two as I looked through everyone’s schedule. You try blogging with three kids screaming and your wife asking when you’re going to mow the lawn.
There’s nothing wrong with enjoying baseball for baseball’s sake.
I never expected a division title this year, but I had a little hope for the wild card. It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen, either.
I’ll still be at the stadium tomorrow night, and I’m going to root for a Mets win.
Exactly!
This season is one of the more bizarre I’ve had as a fan. There have been truly good seasons, there have been “the team’s not great, but they’re giving an honest effort” seasons, and there have been “wow, they suck but I can’t turn away seasons.” This one is something different altogether.
Everybody knows my stance on the franchise and where it needs to go from here. Consequently, I now approach every game with a win-win attitude. If the Mets win, that’s awesome. If they lose, it demonstrates just how far away this team is from actually contending and expedites the process of getting them there. That’s great for my blood pressure, but it also removes a lot of the suspense that draws me to the games in the first place.
Hogwash … its really quite simple, at some point before the all star break you get to .500 and then you continue to win more than you lose … then after the all star break anything can happen. It’s not even a matter of “crazier things have happened” it’s really more about momentum. A couple of 6 to 8 game winning streaks with .500 ball between them is all it takes … or, you can have 3 4 to 6 game winning streaks with .500 ball in between. Nothing extraordinary about that. This Met team has hung around under some very difficult circumstances (missing Ike and Wright). Again — if the Mets go into the all star break a few games over .500 with the promise of Santana’s return, anything can happen. Nothing revelatory about this …