Cool article about how Nobody Will Win 30 Games Again.
Excerpt:
Today a pitcher will typically lead the league with 35 starts; if he wins 75.6 percent of them he’ll record 26 wins. A winning percentage similar to Denny McLain’s just isn’t good enough in today’s game. To achieve 30 victories a pitcher needs to win 85.7 percent (30 out of 35) of his starts.
Using the Pythagorean method of forecasting wins and losses we can easily determine the ERA necessary to win 85.7 percent of 35 starts. The typical major league team in 2008 scores 4.63 runs per game. Given average support a starting pitcher would need to surrender no more than 1.89 runs per nine innings to position himself for 30 wins. In 2008 approximately seven percent of all runs are unearned, so our 30 game winner’s ERA would actually look more like 1.76.
