I’m not giving up on the Mets on April 14th

I’m going to take a break from uniforms/colors/caps today, and also want to capture the moment and not throw out an idea/topic/suggestion when my readers are thinking about something else – so I bumped today’s planned statue discussion, and several readers have sent in mockups of pinless pipingless jerseys but I’ll save those too.

Today’s zeitgeist seems to be the slow start.

One of the interesting things I have found over the past three or so weeks is that I am now being criticized for not being critical enough.  That makes me laugh, but since I don’t want to be “the complaining guy” I’m fine with it.

I’m not ready to give up on the season on April 14th.

Give me until at least after Ron Hodges Day.

I think the 8-0 score  shocked the Metsoverse and send us all (me too) into a tizzy.  Twitter sure was feisty (@metspolice, I’m just shy of 1000 fans so follow me and stroke my ego)    A 4-3 loss would have stunk, but I think there would be far less panic today.

Maine?  I don’t know the deal – that’s what the beat writers are for, and I don’t know who would take his turn in the rotation.  That’s not what this site handles.

I’ve already heard “dismantle.”  It is April 14th.   Why can’t the Mets win the next two to go 4-5 and then come home say 5-7.   Is 5-7 really the end of the world and a hole they can’t climb out of?

Who are you trading?

Without getting too much into the reality of  contracts and clauses…

David Wright? See June 15, 1977.  Might as well order some Teixeira jerseys for every boy presently in grammar school in the tri-state area.

Jose Reyes? He’s at his all-time low value.  If he is hitting .300 and stealing bases come July 31 and the Mets are 27 games out….maybe…maybe…..and then watch Jose get a ring and win the 2011 MVP.  Won’t that be awesome?  Like Seaver getting a no-hitter for the Reds.

Santana? Aces are hard to come by my friend.

Francoeur? Last time anyone checked he gets you Ryan Church.

Beltran? Also at diminished value, and does have a full no-trade.

I know it’s trendy to blame Jerry, and I guess it was Jerry’s fault for not starting Tom Seaver last night (bad call Jerry, although Tom is 65).

So when to panic?

As calm as I am, the answer is soon.   People who know me from the Valentine days know I like to talk about “the math.”   Wins in April count the same as meaningful games in September.

Assume it takes just 90 games to win the east.  The Mets need to go 88-67 the rest of the way.

Do you think this team is capable of playing .567 ball for six months?  The 2008 Mets finished 89-73 which was .549, so this team already needs to play better than that bunch.

It may get late early, but I’m not ready to throw in the towel.

Discuss!

53 Replies to “I’m not giving up on the Mets on April 14th”

  1. Manuel brings nothing to the table and seems to get the least out of his players. He’s already on a short leash, my question is why when you already have decided a guy probably isn’t the right fit for the team are you giving him any rope, especially a guy that has won nothing and has no resume to fall back on? They should’ve gone with a fresh start and a fresh set of ideas, and 7 games isn’t too early to realize that.

    I really think Warthen is a horrible pitching coach. He gets some credit for the way some of the guys pitched after he took over in 2008 (but the bullpen was disasterous.) like Perez, but that may have been teh results of any slight change causing batters to not recognize Perez’s pitches rather than an actual increase in pitching quality. The pitchers often, to me, look unprepared and lacking a concise plan of attack. Warthen always seems to come out one batter too late to talk to his pitcher. Again, he doesn’t seem to bring anything major to the table, so why not replace him?

    Maine is disturbing. I’m wondering if Warthen’s tinkering with Perez is affecting his pitch delivery and velocity. with Maine..I don’t know. He threw 91-92 a bunch in his last two starts of last year, so it’s hard to say he’s just not the same after the injury. Maybe it’s an arm strength thing and once he builds it up he’ll get that velocity back? I don’t even know who to listen to on this, because velocity is not something many are experts on (specifically radio hosts, analysts, and beat writers, despite what we’ll hear today) if it’s location, that’s something he should be working on with Warthen and should be able to correct. He just didn’t pitch a good game last night, velocity aside. It sounded like Keith was cringing with every pitch.

    Btw, It’s amazing to me how much Keith (and Ron) see. He recognizes all these mistakes, and problems. An example last night was when he said he could notice that Smith’s arm slot was slightly off as he was tiring allowing him to identify pitches. This is something that HoJo should be recognizing too, as well as the hitters. (did they? who knows..)

    1. @Ceetar. Maybe they could convince Keith to manage home games and west coast road trips. I’d love to see what he could do. Man even if he lead them to the playoffs, lost, and then walked away – the legend of Keith would be amazing. Of course we saw what happened to Buddy.

  2. My outlook on this season was somewhere between 82-88 wins and contend for the wild card. At present time they 2 1/2 games behind the wild card leader. You can’t panic after the first week or even the first 2 weeks. I say after 3 weeks you have given the team enough time to show you something. At this point I don’t know if they will or not but with the season just started it takes teams some time to get going.

    Maybe Jerry getting fired a month into the season and Omar being handcuffed to a chair somewhere in citi field is what the team needs.

  3. I guess the first thing to do in panic mode is say goodbye to Jerry. If that happens, does that mean Omar is making the decision on the replacement? The same Omar who got us in this mess? Now he has a scapegoat and can buy himself some time? Doesn’t seem right. They should both go. I think, deep down, we all know how this is going to turn out. I hope I’m wrong.

    1. @Jimmy. Is Bob Melvin selling tickets? Is the record this year Jerry’s fault? Omar’s? Some bad luck and a good catch? If you’re changing managers to distract the fans the move is V or Wally, probably V.

  4. That’s what I meant by “We all know how it’s going to turn out”. They’ll replace Jerry with some retread / dullard / good baseball man, who will last through 2011. They’ll fire Omar at the end of the year and replace him with a good soldier who won’t rock the boat.
    They’ll still be boring and mediocre at best. Yes, The fans (including me) need to be distracted. We need an overhaul. Bobby V for GM? Wally for manager? We’ve been waiting too long to have a team we truly like. I need some juice. I can accept it if they stink. I want some fun.

  5. The team has no pitching staff. Regardless of who is coach, who is hitting and who is fielding, they have no pitching. Their #1 priority in the off season should have been pitching. It wasn’t and therefore they aren’t going to win.

    You can say Manuel and all suck as coaches, but does it really matter?

  6. i don’t know. it’s all too panicy for me. i mean, the 2007 mets started 4-0 and, over the course of their first 10, 7-3. where did that get us?

    i guess my problem is this: we knew it would take a little while. reyes is just starting to find it, the beltran calvalry isn’t charging yet. but the thing the team has done is keep the clouds of seasons’ past over the heads of the previous team. i don’t think the difference between willie randolph and jerry manuel was 20 plus wins. nor do i think the difference between jerry and wally backman or bob melvin or terry collins is any different. i just think it would be one less distraction if they team came in fresh with a manager with at least a full season of security. the first three game losing streak shouldn’t spark a manager watch, but it has two of the last three seasons. i think THAT’S more of the problem than anything else.

  7. As many have said before, it gets late early. I’m not a “it’s just six games” person. This team does not look focused – and has not for a long time now – and that’s how you end up in fourth pace, if you’re lucky. Is it emblematic of the problems of the club, starting from the top down, that has infected the club over the last few years?

    I agree with all those before who have said the front office and management do not have a plan to win. They are rife with contradiction, and that filters down. It just looks as though nobody, anywhere on this club, has a clue as to where they’re going or what to do, from the meddling ownership, befuddled GM, ineffectual manager and coaches, and on to a team that wasn’t necessarily assembled to win but rather indifferently thrown together to try and fill up a new stadium. The Mets always seem like a house of cards and if just one is removed or jostled, the whole thing collapses … repeatedly.

    I’m not panicking because, I guess, this is exactly what I thought would happen this year. This ownership seems more content with ticket sales (good luck with that) and marketing (“this team doesn’t need starting pitching, it needs new jerseys!”) than with building a formidable contender of a team. I think it’s gonna be a long few years. So what to do? Honestly, I think that as long as the Wilpons are in charge, nothing will change. But my thoughts? Fire Warthen yesterday. And, I hate to say it: thanks for everything, Hojo, and good luck to you. And, Jerry, you’re next. Granted, he was not helped in the off season, there’s just too much bad money invested. But is it me, or does he just sound like a beaten man asking to be taken out of his misery?

    (Jeez, I really wasn’t planning to go all dark n’ gloomy)

  8. On the coaches/manager: Why is the reaction to (merely two) bad starts by Maine to talk about jettisoning him, rather than fixing him? That’s an inditement on their own talents.

    1. I think it’s a cumulative effect from the last few years. Pitching seems, to me, a long-lost skill with this club. The situational hitting is not good, and really hasn’t been (I realize I’m generalizing a bit). Like I said regarding Jerry, I agree they’ve not been given a whole lot to work with. Is the backslide indicative of the level of talent of the players? Perhaps. Maybe I woke up on the wrong side of the bed today, but how long do you let it all slide before you realize it’s too late?

      I completely understand and agree that there is no miracle cure just around the corner, nobody who can come in and bake a World Champs cake with these ingredients. To me, it looks like the manager/coaches are losing control of an already under-performing club. I ask the following honestly: what can be done? I agree with Shannon that there really isn’t anyone you can trade now (that will not cause a total mutiny) and get anything back that could really help, and this club, as assembled, doesn’t feel like it’s capable of playing near .600 ball in order to contend. I don’t think it’s fathomable that you can leave a manager/coaches on the bench saying, in effect, “well, I’m doing what I can with what I have, so it’s now up to the players”. The team is not as bad as they are playing, granted, but are they really good enough to contend? Which goes back to the question of what can you realistically do? Which, you know, might have been the point of Shannon’s post …

      Man, I’ve had too much coffee this morning.

      1. @clancy Cerrone mentioned LoDuca’s name today – and I have written about him before.

        Which Met is gonna get angry that they are 2-5?

        Today they start a rookie. If they lose 6-2 is that Jerry’s fault?

        1. Admittedly, I think the faults of this this club lie much deeper than the manager. I wholeheartedly agree that they critically need someone on the field, a captain, a dirt dog, who will step up, chew out and, Hernandez-like, raise the level of this club. I have three Hernandez jerseys in my closet and I was one of the fans who loved LoDuca because of that kind of spirit. It’s been missing here, and for a long, long time. Is it because someone, somewhere in this ownership doesn’t like that kind of necessary leadership? I really don’t know. It seems to me, at times, that ownership/front office prefers a GM/manager/team that they can keep ‘control’ of. The Mets feel like they are swirling on the edge of a black hole, slowly getting drawn into a long and very dark slide. And they’re not fighting. Yet.

          Yes, it’s still relatively in 2010. But 2010 also feels like a steady progression of the same kind of disconnected team that dates back several years now. I’m not usually one who looks back. I’m not calling for someone’s head. I agree that someone has to step up, and nobody on that club has done so in three-plus years. So. I see a club that has been rudderless for far too long and, if nobody else on the team is stepping up to say “WTF?!”, don’t you then look to the manager? Granted it’s hard for a manger in this day and age to lead or motivate overpayed or underperforming players. So what can you do with this particular club, with these particular pieces, at this particular time? It’s almost a no-win scenario. I just feel like it’s a definite risk to keep waiting for this ship to right itself because I’m not sure that it can, and too many involved are waiting passively by, saying, “No, no, YOU take the wheel.”

          (The thing is, really, I’m not usually a doomsayer. I’m not a negative person – honest. I just wonder where the bottom is for this club and if they’ve hit it yet in order to turn it all around.)

          1. Clancy: perfectly said.

            Sometimes I wonder if it’s all of the Wilpon’s behavior is because of the public relatiions black eye the ’86 team gave them. Well, Fred and Jeff, you’d win many more games, and make a lot more money, even after paying for the refurbishing of a widebody jet every year, if you got some Keiths, Lennys, Rays and even Garys.

          2. @mike for all the “bad pr” the 86ers gave, they sure owned the town and are beloved by two generations of meta fans, and looked upon longingly by the third.

  9. The Opening Day optimism is gone. The Mets are just not a very good team and the huge holes we all knew were there are exhibiting themselves loud and proud from the get go. I’m ready for rebuilding mode, because this story line is getting old really quick. It’s time.

    1. @Eric – I get the frustration but rebuild? On April 14th? Like move “the core?” That’s a major move, and it is a business based upon tickets/merch and SNY ratings in a town with a second option.

  10. This team needed at fast start after last year. But how can they when you have a starting 4 as they do after Santana. And Santana might have lost something. And how can you start someone like Tatis at first base? May 1 bring up Ike Davis. Get younger.

    This current team was ruined by the contracts given to Ollie and Castillo. Now unless they get rid of them in a trade which is not going to happen we have to deal with it, cause Wilpon is not going to add payroll.

    And what is it with everyone who say, “oh its early”. Bull. This games are just as important to the end result. Bet the Mets wish they had some extra April wins in the their pockets when end of season came along in 2007 and 2008.

    1. @jesse as much fun as Castillo bashing, and believe me I partake, he’s like the 17th biggest problem. I wish our problem was Castillo and his .300 hitting.

      1. @Shannon: yes, rebuild. Rebuild now, or rebuild later, but, you’re going to rebuild. Those who aren’t damaged physically, are apparently damaged mentally (i.e. Maine, Perez). At the very least, they all seem to be infected with a loser’s mentality. How else can you explain the consistency of the ‘lay down and die’ attitude shown by so many players in oh so many games throughout the last season or so?

        I’m tired of people saying, “it’s the injuries,” or “it’s Jerky Manuel’s personality” (they didn’t like Willie’s professional attitude either – he didn’t throw players under the media bus), or “it’s Omar,” or “it’s only x games,” or “wait until…(the latest of which is wait for Murphy;” a guy many commenters were trying to ditch since the beginning of last season; now he’s ‘the answer).

        ENOUGH!

        My answer to your question, “who would you trade,” would be anybody that would give us a good return in players and prospects. I hear you asking, “Even DW?” Well, you don’t need a ‘face’ for this franchise, you need a franchise!

        Sorry, David…we’ll miss you (a whole hell of a lot), but, you deserve better than this (as do the fans).

        Ah, hell, I’m just venting also.

        Bobby V for GM, and Wally for manager anybody?

        1. @Mike – are you old enough for the morning of June 16, 1977?

          Believe me if you are miserable this morning – waking up to find out Reyes is on the Red Sox and Wright on the Dodgers and Santana on the Cubs….that’s an ugly morning. (those were un-researched trades so when someone reminds me that the Dodgers already have an awesome 3B – got it)

        2. Also re trades….say you move Santana and replace his 13 wins with a 24 year old left-handed pitcher who won 14 games and the rookie of the year last year, a starting OFer and a starting 2B…that’s a great trade right?

          1. Unfortunately, yes I’m old enough to remember The Franchise being traded. It was the first time I “gave up” on the Mets. Of course, the pain faded, and I didn’t really give up on the Mets.

            However, this “death” by a thousand mistakes, missteps, misjudgements, misplays, is intolerable. The fact is that the trouble was visible as early as April and May of 2007, when the Mets couldn’t stomp (the living crap) out of the Braves or other division rivals (in our house, let alone theirs). People in my office, laughed at my opinion, then. and the fact that I said, some of those early season losses would end up costing us (somewhere I recalled hearing a stat that no WSeries winner (maybe it was WS contender) had ever lost four games in a row (during the season), and the Mets had already done so (more than once if I recall correctly). To my utmost sorrow and dismay (not surprise though), the season and the team proved that my early season concerns were well founded.

            Now, it’s three full seasons later, and we’ve regressed significantly. We’re not even laughing stocks anymore, rather we’re the pitied (along with Houston and the Cubs).

            As for your proposed trade, I can’t answer since you didn’t supply a set of names, even as a hypothetical . I’m already in the camp that believes Santana is likely in decline, and he is no longer in the top of the top tier of pitching. As time passes, quickly, his talents will diminsh (whether or not they already have), and he’ll be falling in those ranks. Moving him now doesn’t bring back memories of the betrayal of Seaver, and could be the start of more youngsters like Ike Davis, Meija, Flores and Martinez.

            Since management has already forced me to endure two torturous seasons of this, and it appears we might be in for another, I might as well endure it, while at least building a future.

            Without hope, there is nothing, and right now, I sense “the hope” of the new season is almost gone.

          2. @mike. My proposed trade was for pat zachry, Doug flynn and steve Henderson. (on iPhone hence caps weirdness).

            I wonder if the Twins like the Santana deal? Then again they’ve made the playoffs.

            Trades don’t always work out. They scare me. McDowell and Dykstra for Samuel. Ouch. Ripped the soul from the team.

            The franchise is percieved as being inept. However it’s so early. This time tomorrow we could be talking about 4-5.

          3. 4-5???
            I hold you personally responsible for jinxing the team

            Oh yeah, I think Francoeur’s value has risen slightly above the Ryan Church level since donning the royal blue and orange

          4. Well, we’re not speaking about a 4-5 team, but perhaps last night’s performance wasn’t “bridge-jumping bad.” Still, losing the first three series of the season, with the first two being at home, is not the “hot start” everyone associated with the club swore was needed.

            At least this year, we’re being shown early what we’re likely to get…it’ll be hard to get worse than their showing in the early part of this season (though it’s more likely we’ll just bump along at the bottom).

          5. And one more thing. I’ve become an avid reader of your blog, in the last few months, even though I’m committed to ignoring the articles on uniforms (I care less about the uniforms they wear than I do about having the guys in them playing good baseball, or even the cheesy apple.

            I think you’ve got some great commenters, who use their heads, rarely falling to the sniping, belittling, insult-driven level that too many of Metsblog’s commenters do.

            Thanks, for allowing us all to vent our frustrations.

            LET’S GO METS!!

          6. @mike. It has been uni heavy the last week, and pics heavy before that, and I get in caps moods, or mazzilli moods, or rabid about obstructed views, etc but I appreciate you reading

            I’m very pleased with the comments section. It’s a very mature respectful conversation.

            I can tell you I have some more uni stuff, some goofy stuff, a guest post about booing, and a guest post about statues waiting. I ripped up today’s plan at 8-0.

  11. Perez isn’t even the problem. He was injured last year. If he pitches like he has historically, it’ll be fine. we can’t even evaluate! Castillo is just fine.

  12. Shannon… Okay, maybe I’m just frustrated and venting. You called my bluff. But can they at least get Ike Davis up here and stop pretending Jacobs or Tatis or Murphy will EVER be good? Throw us a bone AND sell a bunch of Davis jerseys in the process!

    1. @eric If the season is lost – and it isn’t on April 14th – yeah play Ike and F-Mart and Thole. I’m pretty sure we know Tatis isn’t going to become an All-Star. But to throw Ike in tonight with the unspoken “save us” – not sure that makes sense.

  13. Can we stop pretending Davis is ready off an extremely small sample? Murphy will be back and put up respectable numbers in an already good lineup. (Seriously, once he comes back the end of the lineup is Murphy, Francoeur, Barajas. I could really get to enjoy that)

  14. And what’s the benefit to playing Murphy if it leads to another failure of a season?

  15. I guess I just don’t see much of an upside to Murphy… at least not enough to warrant holding back Davis and seeing how he does.

  16. Murphy will likely contribute more over the course of the entire season, than Davis will, even if Ike could be better by the time the season ends.

    If the Mets traded Reyes or Wright, I’m not sure I could handle it. Obviously, I’d have to, but I’m sure I’d slip into a level of disinterest with the team and certainly wouldn’t go to as many games.

  17. So if the Mets finish the year in last place with Wright and Reyes you’d be interested?

    Also, once again if this team doesn’t make the playoffs regardless, who gives a damn if Murphy plays or not. This isn’t little league.

    1. @Scott. I followed last years team and the crappy teams in the past. Wright and Reyes give me hope for 2011. If they do make an aggressive move I think Reyes gets u back the most. Then he wins the 2011 MVP to annoy us.

  18. Hey does everyone forget that David Arthur Kingman was traded the same day as Seaver. Think we got Bobby Valentine and Paul Suerbert. Didn’t Kingman play for 4 teams in 1977?

    1. @jesse yep on all re Kingman. That hurt too and added to the brain-exploding feeling. It would be like waking up tomorrow and finding out Wright and Reyes were both gone….and then some.

  19. Shannon – Castillo is the problem in the sense he cant hit the ball out of the infield. And his salary stopped them from going after a real #2 stater. His .300 avg is a soft .300. Wish Murphy could play 2B. Ollie is just another Zambrono / Trachel. In my opinion all head cases.

  20. Lots of good comments here.

    For all the flak Manuel takes, why is there so little questioning of HoJo? I’m glad somebody brought that up. As questionable as the pitching is–and I really don’t think that’s anyone’s fault but Omar’s–the offense has righteously stunk since Opening Day and long before that.

    Yes, I am convinced ownership is afraid to bring in players with real cajones. I don’t think it’s the ’86 team that made them shy so much as the early 90s teams. At least the mid-80s teams won.

    As far as managing and coaching changes, Omar blew that chance in the winter of ’07. Randolph and his staff should’ve been canned the day after the season ended to give the team a fresh start. Instead, they continued to flounder into ’08 and the team began to expect to lose. When they finally did pull the trigger, they merely turned to another holdover, and while there was a bump in performance for a while, then the ghosts eventually came haunting again. After ’08 was the time to start thinking about “busting up the core.”

    Castillo? I don’t wish any ill will on anyone, but if he ended up sidelined with an injury for a long while, it wouldn’t hurt my feelings. His head has been up his behind since he arrived. Case in point, Tuesday night when he got thrown out trying to stretch a single with his team down 8-to-freaking-nothing. On the whole, I usually don’t find a lot of fault with Manuel, but at some point, he’s got to bench guys for that kind of crap. He was kind of handcuffed last year with the lack of depth (Angel Berroa, anyone?), but putting Cora on 2nd tonight certainly wouldn’t have hurt anything.

    This is at best a 3rd place team for any number of reasons, most of which can be traced back to Minaya architecture. They could trade Beltran or Reyes for a draft pick tomorrow and it wouldn’t hurt my feelings. They’re going to stink regardless. At least they can stink with an eye on tomorrow.

    The key thing in all this is that we’re not merely entering the 2nd week of a season. We’re entering a 3rd year of sorriness.

    1. @shawn isnt the problem with this team the starting pitching? Didn’t we all know that? Aren’t there 4 straight days every week when you don’t feel confident?

      1. Shannon, there is no “the” problem. This team has multiple problems. Among them are: two busts tying up a bajillion dollars of payroll, a lack of clutch hitting, a psychological cloud hanging over it since October of 2007, and too many players doing boneheaded things on the field day after day.

        Last night, 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position didn’t have a thing to do with starting pitching. Nor did that play where Jacobs didn’t bother to look at the runner on 3rd and Reyes argued a call as the run scored.

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